A United Ireland Plebiscite Must Not Transform Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Alert

A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."